Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis

Nicolas A. Menzies (), Brian W. Allwood, Anna S. Dean, Pete J. Dodd, Rein M. G. J. Houben, Lyndon P. James, Gwenan M. Knight, Jamilah Meghji, Linh N. Nguyen, Andrea Rachow, Samuel G. Schumacher, Fuad Mirzayev and Ted Cohen
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Nicolas A. Menzies: Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health
Brian W. Allwood: Stellenbosch University & Tygerberg Hospital
Anna S. Dean: World Health Organization
Pete J. Dodd: University of Sheffield
Rein M. G. J. Houben: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Lyndon P. James: Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health
Gwenan M. Knight: EPH, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Jamilah Meghji: Imperial College London
Linh N. Nguyen: World Health Organization
Andrea Rachow: Medical Centre of the University of Munich (LMU)
Samuel G. Schumacher: World Health Organization
Fuad Mirzayev: World Health Organization
Ted Cohen: Yale School of Public Health

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract In 2020, almost half a million individuals developed rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB). We estimated the global burden of RR-TB over the lifetime of affected individuals. We synthesized data on incidence, case detection, and treatment outcomes in 192 countries (99.99% of global tuberculosis). Using a mathematical model, we projected disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the lifetime for individuals developing tuberculosis in 2020 stratified by country, age, sex, HIV, and rifampicin resistance. Here we show that incident RR-TB in 2020 was responsible for an estimated 6.9 (95% uncertainty interval: 5.5, 8.5) million DALYs, 44% (31, 54) of which accrued among TB survivors. We estimated an average of 17 (14, 21) DALYs per person developing RR-TB, 34% (12, 56) greater than for rifampicin-susceptible tuberculosis. RR-TB burden per 100,000 was highest in former Soviet Union countries and southern African countries. While RR-TB causes substantial short-term morbidity and mortality, nearly half of the overall disease burden of RR-TB accrues among tuberculosis survivors. The substantial long-term health impacts among those surviving RR-TB disease suggest the need for improved post-treatment care and further justify increased health expenditures to prevent RR-TB transmission.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41937-9

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