The momentum of the solar energy transition

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse (), Jean-Francois Mercure, Nadia Ameli, Francesca Larosa, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, Pim Vercoulen and Hector Pollitt
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Femke J. M. M. Nijsse: University of Exeter
Jean-Francois Mercure: University of Exeter
Nadia Ameli: University College London
Francesca Larosa: University College London
Sumit Kothari: University College London
Jamie Rickman: University College London
Pim Vercoulen: University of Exeter
Hector Pollitt: University of Cambridge

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Decarbonisation plans across the globe require zero-carbon energy sources to be widely deployed by 2050 or 2060. Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth, and its economic attractiveness is improving fast in a cycle of increasing investments. Here we use data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting modelling to establish which zero carbon power sources could become dominant worldwide. We find that, due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies. Uncertainties arise, however, over grid stability in a renewables-dominated power system, the availability of sufficient finance in underdeveloped economies, the capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose employment. Policies resolving these barriers may be more effective than price instruments to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7

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