Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Robert Vautard (), Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D’Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurélien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel and Pascal Yiou
Additional contact information
Robert Vautard: Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université
Julien Cattiaux: Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
Tamara Happé: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Jitendra Singh: ETH Zurich
Rémy Bonnet: Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université
Christophe Cassou: Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique
Dim Coumou: Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université
Fabio D’Andrea: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS
Davide Faranda: UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL
Erich Fischer: ETH Zurich
Aurélien Ribes: Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
Sebastian Sippel: ETH Zurich
Pascal Yiou: UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°−1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42143-3 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42143-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().