Overemphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events

Ji-Won Kim (), Jin-Yi Yu () and Baijun Tian
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Ji-Won Kim: California Institute of Technology
Jin-Yi Yu: University of California
Baijun Tian: California Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Previous studies have emphasized the significance of a strong El Niño preceding La Niña (LN) in the formation of multi-year LN events due to the slow recharge-discharge ocean heat content process. However, observational analyses from 1900 to 2022 reveal that the majority (64%) of multi-year LN events did not necessitate a preceding strong El Niño to generate their second LN, suggesting an overemphasis on traditional views. Instead, here we show that a negative phase of the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) during spring, when the first LN begins to decay, activates the mechanism responsible for triggering another LN and producing a multi-year event. The westward extension of the first LN’s cold anomalies, which interact directly with the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool, is highlighted as a crucial factor in the occurrence of a negative PMM. Additionally, the PMM mechanism can create a third LN, leading to triple-dip events.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42373-5

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