Linking climate warming and land conversion to species’ range changes across Great Britain

Andrew J. Suggitt (), Christopher J. Wheatley, Paula Aucott, Colin M. Beale, Richard Fox, Jane K. Hill, Nick J. B. Isaac, Blaise Martay, Humphrey Southall, Chris D. Thomas, Kevin J. Walker and Alistair G. Auffret ()
Additional contact information
Andrew J. Suggitt: Northumbria University
Christopher J. Wheatley: University of York
Paula Aucott: University of Portsmouth
Colin M. Beale: University of York
Richard Fox: Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham
Jane K. Hill: University of York
Nick J. B. Isaac: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford
Blaise Martay: British Trust for Ornithology, Beta Centre (Unit 15), Stirling University Innovation Park
Humphrey Southall: University of Portsmouth
Chris D. Thomas: University of York
Kevin J. Walker: Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland, Room 14, Bridge House, 1-2 Station Bridge
Alistair G. Auffret: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42475-0

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