Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots

Renata L. Muylaert (), David A. Wilkinson, Tigga Kingston, Paolo D’Odorico, Maria Cristina Rulli, Nikolas Galli, Reju Sam John, Phillip Alviola and David T. S. Hayman
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Renata L. Muylaert: Massey University
David A. Wilkinson: UMR ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, Université de Montpellier, Plateforme Technologique CYROI, Sainte-Clotilde
Tigga Kingston: Texas Tech University
Paolo D’Odorico: University of California, Berkeley
Maria Cristina Rulli: Politecnico di Milano
Nikolas Galli: Politecnico di Milano
Reju Sam John: University of Auckland
Phillip Alviola: University of the Philippines- Los Banos
David T. S. Hayman: Massey University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers—landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure—associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far (

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42627-2

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42627-2

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