Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia

Lloyd A. C. Chapman (), Maite Aubry, Noémie Maset, Timothy W. Russell, Edward S. Knock, John A. Lees, Henri-Pierre Mallet, Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai and Adam J. Kucharski
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Lloyd A. C. Chapman: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Maite Aubry: Institut Louis Malardé
Noémie Maset: Cellule Epi-surveillance Plateforme COVID-19
Timothy W. Russell: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Edward S. Knock: Imperial College London
John A. Lees: Imperial College London
Henri-Pierre Mallet: Cellule Epi-surveillance Plateforme COVID-19
Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai: Institut Louis Malardé
Adam J. Kucharski: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract Estimating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence is complicated by several factors, including successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and changing population immunity from vaccination and infection. We develop an age-structured multi-strain COVID-19 transmission model and inference framework to estimate vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention impact accounting for these factors. We apply this framework to COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia and estimate that the vaccination programme averted 34.8% (95% credible interval: 34.5–35.2%) of 223,000 symptomatic cases, 49.6% (48.7–50.5%) of 5830 hospitalisations and 64.2% (63.1–65.3%) of 1540 hospital deaths that would have occurred in a scenario without vaccination up to May 2022. We estimate the booster campaign contributed 4.5%, 1.9%, and 0.4% to overall reductions in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Our results suggest that removing lockdowns during the first two waves would have had non-linear effects on incidence by altering accumulation of population immunity. Our estimates of vaccination and booster impact differ from those for other countries due to differences in age structure, previous exposure levels and timing of variant introduction relative to vaccination, emphasising the importance of detailed analysis that accounts for these factors.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43002-x

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