Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Junya Sunagawa, Hyeongki Park, Kwang Su Kim, Ryo Komorizono, Sooyoun Choi, Lucia Ramirez Torres, Joohyeon Woo, Yong Dam Jeong, William S. Hart, Robin N. Thompson, Kazuyuki Aihara, Shingo Iwami () and Ryo Yamaguchi ()
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Junya Sunagawa: Hokkaido University
Hyeongki Park: Nagoya University
Kwang Su Kim: Nagoya University
Ryo Komorizono: Kyoto University
Sooyoun Choi: Nagoya University
Lucia Ramirez Torres: Nagoya University
Joohyeon Woo: Nagoya University
Yong Dam Jeong: Nagoya University
William S. Hart: University of Oxford
Robin N. Thompson: University of Oxford
Kazuyuki Aihara: The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study, The University of Tokyo
Shingo Iwami: Nagoya University
Ryo Yamaguchi: Hokkaido University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43043-2

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