A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

Jennifer Vanos (), Gisel Guzman-Echavarria, Jane W. Baldwin, Coen Bongers, Kristie L. Ebi and Ollie Jay
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Jennifer Vanos: Arizona State University
Gisel Guzman-Echavarria: Arizona State University
Jane W. Baldwin: University of California Irvine
Coen Bongers: Radboud university medical center
Kristie L. Ebi: University of Washington
Ollie Jay: University of Sydney

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5

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