Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan

Baosheng Li, Lei Zhou (), Jianhuang Qin, Tianjun Zhou, Dake Chen, Shugui Hou and Raghu Murtugudde ()
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Baosheng Li: Ministry of Natural Resources
Lei Zhou: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Jianhuang Qin: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Tianjun Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Dake Chen: Ministry of Natural Resources
Shugui Hou: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Raghu Murtugudde: Indian Institute of Technology Bombay

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract The edge of a monsoon region is usually highly sensitive to climate change. Pakistan, which is located on the northern edge of the Indian monsoon, is highly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and has witnessed several debilitating floods exacerbated by global warming in recent years. However, the mechanisms for the frequent Pakistan floods are yet not fully understood. Here, we show that the Middle East is undergoing an increase in land heating during spring, which is responsible for 46% of the intensified rainfall over Pakistan and northwestern India during 1979–2022. This springtime land warming causes a decline in sea level pressure (SLP), which strengthens the meridional SLP gradient between the Middle East and the southern Arabian Sea and drives the changes of low-level jet (LLJ) subsequently. The impact persists into summer and results in a northward shift of the monsoonal LLJ, accompanied by strong positive vorticity in the atmosphere and enhanced moisture supply to Pakistan. Consequently, the transition region between the summer monsoon in South Asia and the desert climate in West Asia is shifted northwestward, posing significantly enhanced risk of floods over Pakistan and northwestern India.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43463-0

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