Integrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections

Evelyn G. Shu (), Jeremy R. Porter, Mathew E. Hauer, Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga, Jesse Gourevitch, Bradley Wilson, Mariah Pope, David Melecio-Vazquez and Edward Kearns
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Evelyn G. Shu: First Street Foundation
Jeremy R. Porter: First Street Foundation
Mathew E. Hauer: Florida State University
Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jesse Gourevitch: Environmental Defense Fund
Bradley Wilson: First Street Foundation
Mariah Pope: First Street Foundation
David Melecio-Vazquez: First Street Foundation
Edward Kearns: First Street Foundation

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Flood exposure has been linked to shifts in population sizes and composition. Traditionally, these changes have been observed at a local level providing insight to local dynamics but not general trends, or at a coarse resolution that does not capture localized shifts. Using historic flood data between 2000-2023 across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), we identify the relationships between flood exposure and population change. We demonstrate that observed declines in population are statistically associated with higher levels of historic flood exposure, which may be subsequently coupled with future population projections. Several locations have already begun to see population responses to observed flood exposure and are forecasted to have decreased future growth rates as a result. Finally, we find that exposure to high frequency flooding (5 and 20-year return periods) results in 2-7% lower growth rates than baseline projections. This is exacerbated in areas with relatively high exposure to frequent flooding where growth is expected to decline over the next 30 years.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43493-8

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