Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries

Danyang Cheng, David Reiner, Fan Yang, Can Cui, Jing Meng, Yuli Shan, Yunhui Liu, Shu Tao and Dabo Guan ()
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Danyang Cheng: Tsinghua University
Fan Yang: Aalborg University
Can Cui: Institute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich
Jing Meng: University College London
Yuli Shan: University of Birmingham
Yunhui Liu: Tsinghua University
Shu Tao: Peking University
Dabo Guan: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Achieving low-carbon development of the cement industry in the developing countries is fundamental to global emissions abatement, considering the local construction industry’s rapid growth. However, there is currently a lack of systematic and accurate accounting and projection of cement emissions in developing countries, which are characterized with lower basic economic country condition. Here, we provide bottom-up quantifications of emissions from global cement production and reveal a regional shift in the main contributors to global cement CO2 emissions. The study further explores cement emissions over 2020-2050 that correspond to different housing and infrastructure conditions and emissions mitigation options for all developing countries except China. We find that cement emissions in developing countries except China will reach 1.4-3.8 Gt in 2050 (depending on different industrialization trajectories), compared to their annual emissions of 0.7 Gt in 2018. The optimal combination of low-carbon measures could contribute to reducing annual emissions by around 65% in 2050 and cumulative emissions by around 48% over 2020-2050. The efficient technological paths towards a low carbon future of cement industry vary among the countries and infrastructure scenarios. Our results are essential to understanding future emissions patterns of the cement industry in the developing countries and can inform policies in the cement sector that contribute to meeting the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43660-x

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