Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus

Mi-Kyung Sung (), Soon-Il An (), Jongsoo Shin, Jae-Heung Park, Young-Min Yang, Hyo-Jeong Kim and Minhee Chang
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Mi-Kyung Sung: Korea Institute of Science and Technology
Soon-Il An: Yonsei University
Jongsoo Shin: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Jae-Heung Park: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University
Young-Min Yang: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Hyo-Jeong Kim: City University of Hong Kong
Minhee Chang: Korea Institute of Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Over the past decade, an unexpected cooling trend has been observed in East Asia and North America during winter. Climate model simulations suggest that this pattern of stalled warming, besides accelerated warming, will repeat throughout the course of global warming, influenced by the natural decade-long variations in the climate system. However, understanding the exact factors affecting the pace of warming remains a challenge. Here we show that a pause in warming over continental areas—namely, local warming hiatus—can be accompanied by excessive heat accumulation north of the ocean fronts. This oceanic condition, often manifesting in the form of marine heatwaves, constrains the subseasonal growth of atmospheric planetary waves, significantly increasing the likelihood of cold extremes in downstream continents. Our results underscore the importance of closely monitoring changing ocean fronts in response to human-induced warming, which can potentially reshape the inherent decade-long fluctuations within regional climates over the long term.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43686-1

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