Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam

Rory Gibb (), Felipe J. Colón-González, Phan Trong Lan, Phan Thi Huong, Vu Sinh Nam, Vu Trong Duoc, Do Thai Hung, Nguyễn Thanh Dong, Vien Chinh Chien, Ly Thi Thuy Trang, Do Kien Quoc, Tran Minh Hoa, Nguyen Hữu Tai, Tran Thi Hang, Gina Tsarouchi, Eleanor Ainscoe, Quillon Harpham, Barbara Hofmann, Darren Lumbroso, Oliver J. Brady and Rachel Lowe
Additional contact information
Rory Gibb: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Felipe J. Colón-González: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Phan Trong Lan: Ministry of Health
Phan Thi Huong: Ministry of Health
Vu Sinh Nam: National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE)
Vu Trong Duoc: National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE)
Do Thai Hung: Pasteur Institute Nha Trang
Nguyễn Thanh Dong: Pasteur Institute Nha Trang
Vien Chinh Chien: Tay Nguyen Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (TIHE)
Ly Thi Thuy Trang: Tay Nguyen Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (TIHE)
Do Kien Quoc: Pasteur Institute Ho Chi Minh City
Tran Minh Hoa: Center for Disease Control
Nguyen Hữu Tai: Center for Disease Control
Tran Thi Hang: Center for Disease Control
Gina Tsarouchi: HR Wallingford
Eleanor Ainscoe: HR Wallingford
Quillon Harpham: HR Wallingford
Barbara Hofmann: HR Wallingford
Darren Lumbroso: HR Wallingford
Oliver J. Brady: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Rachel Lowe: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue’s distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue’s expansion throughout Vietnam.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43954-0

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