Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study

Peng Yin, Ya Gao, Renjie Chen, Wei Liu, Cheng He, Junwei Hao (), Maigeng Zhou () and Haidong Kan ()
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Peng Yin: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Ya Gao: Fudan University
Renjie Chen: Fudan University
Wei Liu: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Cheng He: Fudan University
Junwei Hao: Capital Medical University
Maigeng Zhou: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Haidong Kan: Fudan University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Limited knowledge exists regarding the ramifications of climate warming on death burden from neurodegenerative diseases. Here, we conducted a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study between 2013 and 2019 to investigate the effects of non-optimal temperatures on various neurodegenerative diseases and to predict the potential death burden under different climate change scenarios. Our findings reveal that both low and high temperatures are linked to increased risks of neurodegenerative diseases death. We project that heat-related neurodegenerative disease deaths would increase, while cold-related deaths would decrease. This is characterized by a steeper slope in the high-emission scenario, but a less pronounced trend in the scenarios involving mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we predict that the net changes in attributable death would increase after the mid-21st century, especially under the unrestricted-emission scenario. These results highlight the urgent need for effective climate and public health policies to address the growing challenges of neurodegenerative diseases associated with global warming.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44066-5

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