Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Yusen Liu, Cheng Sun (), Jianping Li, Fred Kucharski, Emanuele Lorenzo, Muhammad Adnan Abid and Xichen Li
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Yusen Liu: Beijing Normal University
Cheng Sun: Beijing Normal University
Jianping Li: Ocean University of China
Fred Kucharski: The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Emanuele Lorenzo: Brown University
Muhammad Adnan Abid: The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Xichen Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1

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