Approaching national climate targets in China considering the challenge of regional inequality

Biying Yu (), Zihao Zhao, Yi-Ming Wei, Lan-Cui Liu (), Qingyu Zhao, Shuo Xu, Jia-Ning Kang and Hua Liao ()
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Biying Yu: Beijing Institute of Technology
Zihao Zhao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Lan-Cui Liu: Beijing Normal University
Qingyu Zhao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Shuo Xu: Beijing Institute of Technology
Jia-Ning Kang: Beijing Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Achievement of national climate targets and the corresponding costs would entirely depend on regional actions within the country. However, because of substantial inequalities and heterogeneities among regions, especially in developing economies, aggressive or uniform actions may exacerbate inequity and induce huge economic losses, which in turn challenges the national climate pledges. Hence, this study extends prior research by proposing economically optimal strategies that can achieve national climate targets and ensure the greatest local and national benefits as well as regional equality. Focusing on the biggest developing country China, we find this strategy can avoid up to 1.54% of cumulative GDP losses for approaching carbon neutrality, and more than 90% of regions would obtain economic gains compared either with existing independently launched targets or with the uniform strategy that all regions achieve peak carbon emissions before 2030. We also provide optimal carbon mitigation pathways to regional peak carbon, carbon intensity and energy consumption.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44122-0

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