Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming

Shijie Zhou, Ping Huang (), Lin Wang (), Kaiming Hu, Gang Huang and Peng Hu
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Shijie Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ping Huang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lin Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Kaiming Hu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Gang Huang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Peng Hu: Yunnan University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The lower tropospheric subtropical circulation (SC) is characterized by monsoons and subtropical highs, playing an important role in global teleconnections and climate variability. The SC changes in a warmer climate are influenced by complex and region-specific mechanisms, resulting in uneven projections worldwide. Here, we present a method to quantify the overall intensity change in global SC, revealing a robust weakening across CMIP6 models. The weakening is primarily caused by global-mean surface warming, and partly counteracted by the direct CO2 effect. The direct CO2 effect is apparent in the transient response but is eventually dominated by the surface warming effect in a slow response. The distinct response timescales to global-mean warming and direct CO2 radiative forcing can well explain the time-varying SC changes in other CO2 emission scenarios. The declined SC implies a contracted monsoon range and drying at its boundary with arid regions under CO2-induced global warming.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44244-5

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