Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau

Jing Xu, Ping Zhao (), Johnny C. L. Chan, Mingyuan Shi, Chi Yang, Siyu Zhao, Ying Xu, Junming Chen, Ling Du, Jie Wu, Jiaxin Ye, Rui Xing, Huimei Wang and Lu Liu
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Jing Xu: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Ping Zhao: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Johnny C. L. Chan: School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong
Mingyuan Shi: National Meteorological Information Center
Chi Yang: Beijing Normal University
Siyu Zhao: University of California, Los Angeles
Ying Xu: National Climate Center
Junming Chen: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Ling Du: Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory; and College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China
Jie Wu: Gannan Normal University
Jiaxin Ye: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Rui Xing: Meteorological Service in Binhai New Area
Huimei Wang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Lu Liu: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity across the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been attributed to a warming ocean. However, it is essential to recognize that the tropical WNP region already boasts high temperatures, and a marginal increase in oceanic warmth due to global warming does not exert a significant impact on the potential for TCs to intensify. Here we report that the weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind the escalating trend in TC intensity within the summer monsoon trough of the tropical WNP, while local ocean surface and subsurface thermodynamic factors play a minor role. Through observational diagnoses and numerical simulations, we establish that this weakening of the vertical wind shear is very likely due to the increase in temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. With further warming of the Tibetan Plateau under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the projected TCs will likely become stronger.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8

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