Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines

Angus Atkinson (), Axel G. Rossberg, Ursula Gaedke, Gary Sprules, Ryan F. Heneghan, Stratos Batziakas, Maria Grigoratou, Elaine Fileman, Katrin Schmidt and Constantin Frangoulis
Additional contact information
Angus Atkinson: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe
Axel G. Rossberg: Queen Mary University of London
Ursula Gaedke: University of Potsdam
Gary Sprules: University of Toronto Mississauga
Ryan F. Heneghan: School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology
Stratos Batziakas: Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Former U.S. Base at Gournes, P.O. Box 2214
Maria Grigoratou: Mercator Ocean International
Elaine Fileman: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe
Katrin Schmidt: University of Plymouth, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
Constantin Frangoulis: Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Former U.S. Base at Gournes, P.O. Box 2214

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5

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