Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models

Shuai Ren, Tao Wang (), Bertrand Guenet, Dan Liu, Yingfang Cao, Jinzhi Ding, Pete Smith and Shilong Piao
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Shuai Ren: Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tao Wang: Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Bertrand Guenet: PSL University, IPSL
Dan Liu: Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yingfang Cao: Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jinzhi Ding: Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Pete Smith: University of Aberdeen
Shilong Piao: Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The soil carbon-climate feedback is currently the least constrained component of global warming projections, and the major source of uncertainties stems from a poor understanding of soil carbon turnover processes. Here, we assemble data from long-term temperature-controlled soil incubation studies to show that the arctic and boreal region has the shortest intrinsic soil carbon turnover time while tropical forests have the longest one, and current Earth system models overestimate intrinsic turnover time by 30 percent across active, slow and passive carbon pools. Our constraint suggests that the global soils will switch from carbon sink to source, with a loss of 0.22–0.53 petagrams of carbon per year until the end of this century from strong mitigation to worst emission scenarios, suggesting that global soils will provide a strong positive carbon feedback on warming. Such a reversal of global soil carbon balance would lead to a reduction of 66% and 15% in the current estimated remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming well below 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, rendering climate mitigation much more difficult.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44433-2

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