Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Cara Nissen (), Nicole S. Lovenduski, Cassandra M. Brooks, Mario Hoppema, Ralph Timmermann and Judith Hauck
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Cara Nissen: University of Colorado Boulder
Nicole S. Lovenduski: University of Colorado Boulder
Cassandra M. Brooks: University of Colorado Boulder
Mario Hoppema: Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Ralph Timmermann: Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Judith Hauck: Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44438-x

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