Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population

Ralph Trancoso (), Jozef Syktus, Richard P. Allan, Jacky Croke, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Robin Chadwick
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Ralph Trancoso: The University of Queensland
Jozef Syktus: The University of Queensland
Richard P. Allan: University of Reading
Jacky Croke: Queensland University of Technology
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg: The University of Queensland
Robin Chadwick: Met Office Hadley Centre

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding of changes across multiple climate model simulations under a warmer climate is limited by this lack of coherence across models. Here, we address this challenge introducing an approach that detects agreement in drier and wetter conditions by evaluating continuous 120-year time-series with trends, across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs and two elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. We show the hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, including regions already experiencing water scarcity or excess. These patterns are projected to impact a significant portion of the global population, with approximately 3 billion people (38% of the world’s current population) affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion people (66% of the world population) under a high emissions scenario by the century’s end (or 35-61% using projections of future population). We undertake a country- and state-level analysis quantifying the population exposed to significant changes in precipitation regimes, offering a robust framework for assessing multiple climate projections.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3

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