Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images

Pan Xia, Lu Zhang, Min Min (), Jun Li, Yun Wang, Yu Yu and Shengjie Jia
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Pan Xia: Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Lu Zhang: National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather), China Meteorological Administration
Min Min: Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Jun Li: National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather), China Meteorological Administration
Yun Wang: China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) Wind Energy Co Ltd
Yu Yu: National Meteorological Information Centre, China Meteorological Administration
Shengjie Jia: Beijing Keytec Technology Co., Ltd.

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Accurate nowcasting for cloud fraction is still intractable challenge for stable solar photovoltaic electricity generation. By combining continuous radiance images measured by geostationary satellite and an advanced recurrent neural network, we develop a nowcasting algorithm for predicting cloud fraction at the leading time of 0–4 h at photovoltaic plants. Based on this algorithm, a cyclically updated prediction system is also established and tested at five photovoltaic plants and several stations with cloud fraction observations in China. The results demonstrate that the cloud fraction nowcasting is efficient, high quality and adaptable. Particularly, it shows an excellent forecast performance within the first 2-hour leading time, with an average correlation coefficient close to 0.8 between the predicted clear sky ratio and actual power generation at photovoltaic plants. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of this technique to improve the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic energy in electricity market.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44666-1

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