Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen

Zhuomin Chen (), Samantha Siedlecki, Matthew Long, Colleen M. Petrik, Charles A. Stock and Curtis A. Deutsch
Additional contact information
Zhuomin Chen: University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences
Samantha Siedlecki: University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences
Matthew Long: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Colleen M. Petrik: University of California San Diego
Charles A. Stock: NOAA, Princeton University
Curtis A. Deutsch: Princeton University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45016-5 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45016-5

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().