Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK

Thomas Ward (), Christopher E. Overton, Robert S. Paton, Rachel Christie, Fergus Cumming and Martyn Fyles
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Thomas Ward: UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance
Christopher E. Overton: UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance
Robert S. Paton: UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance
Rachel Christie: UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance
Martyn Fyles: UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract In May 2022, individuals infected with the monkeypox virus were detected in the UK without clear travel links to endemic areas. Understanding the clinical characteristics and infection severity of mpox is necessary for effective public health policy. The study period of this paper, from the 1st June 2022 to 30th September 2022, included 3,375 individuals that tested positive for the monkeypox virus. The posterior mean times from infection to hospital admission and length of hospital stay were 14.89 days (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 13.60, 16.32) and 7.07 days (95% CrI: 6.07, 8.23), respectively. We estimated the modelled Infection Hospitalisation Risk to be 4.13% (95% CrI: 3.04, 5.02), compared to the overall sample Case Hospitalisation Risk (CHR) of 5.10% (95% CrI: 4.38, 5.86). The overall sample CHR was estimated to be 17.86% (95% CrI: 6.06, 33.11) for females and 4.99% (95% CrI: 4.27, 5.75) for males. A notable difference was observed between the CHRs that were estimated for each sex, which may be indicative of increased infection severity in females or a considerably lower infection ascertainment rate. It was estimated that 74.65% (95% CrI: 55.78, 86.85) of infections with the monkeypox virus in the UK were captured over the outbreak.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45110-8

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