Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years

Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis (), Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque, Francisco William Cruz, Juan Pablo Bernal, Mathias Vuille, Ernesto Tejedor, Matheus Simões Santos, Marília Harumi Shimizu, Angela Ampuero, Wenjing Du, Gilvan Sampaio, Hamilton dos Reis Sales, José Leandro Campos, Mary Toshie Kayano, James Apaèstegui, Roger R. Fu, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, Victor Chavez Mayta, Danielle da Silva Francischini, Marco Aurélio Zezzi Arruda and Valdir Felipe Novello
Additional contact information
Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis: Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque: Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Francisco William Cruz: Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Juan Pablo Bernal: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Mathias Vuille: University at Albany, State University of New York
Ernesto Tejedor: National Museum of Natural Sciences-Spanish National Research Council (MNCN-CSIC)
Matheus Simões Santos: Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)
Marília Harumi Shimizu: National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Angela Ampuero: Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Wenjing Du: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Gilvan Sampaio: National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Hamilton dos Reis Sales: Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Norte de Minas Gerais
José Leandro Campos: Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Mary Toshie Kayano: National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
James Apaèstegui: Instituto Geofísico del Perú
Roger R. Fu: Harvard University
Hai Cheng: Xi’an Jiaotong University
R. Lawrence Edwards: University of Minnesota
Victor Chavez Mayta: University of Michigan
Danielle da Silva Francischini: University of Campinas
Marco Aurélio Zezzi Arruda: University of Campinas
Valdir Felipe Novello: University of Tübingen

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract A better understanding of the relative roles of internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to better project future hydrologic changes. Changes in the evaporative demand play a central role in this context, particularly in tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as the tropical savannah and semi-desertic biomes. Here we present a set of geochemical proxies in speleothems from a well-ventilated cave located in central-eastern Brazil which shows that the evaporative demand is no longer being met by precipitation, leading to a hydrological deficit. A marked change in the hydrologic balance in central-eastern Brazil, caused by a severe warming trend, can be identified, starting in the 1970s. Our findings show that the current aridity has no analog over the last 720 years. A detection and attribution study indicates that this trend is mostly driven by anthropogenic forcing and cannot be explained by natural factors alone. These results reinforce the premise of a severe long-term drought in the subtropics of eastern South America that will likely be further exacerbated in the future given its apparent connection to increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45469-8

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