Disentangling top-down drivers of mortality underlying diel population dynamics of Prochlorococcus in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Stephen J. Beckett (), David Demory (), Ashley R. Coenen, John R. Casey, Mathilde Dugenne, Christopher L. Follett, Paige Connell, Michael C. G. Carlson, Sarah K. Hu, Samuel T. Wilson, Daniel Muratore, Rogelio A. Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Shengyun Peng, Kevin W. Becker, Daniel R. Mende, E. Virginia Armbrust, David A. Caron, Debbie Lindell, Angelicque E. White, François Ribalet and Joshua S. Weitz ()
Additional contact information
Stephen J. Beckett: Georgia Institute of Technology
David Demory: Georgia Institute of Technology
Ashley R. Coenen: Georgia Institute of Technology
John R. Casey: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Mathilde Dugenne: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Christopher L. Follett: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Paige Connell: University of Southern California
Michael C. G. Carlson: Technion – Israel Institute of Technology
Sarah K. Hu: University of Southern California
Samuel T. Wilson: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Daniel Muratore: Georgia Institute of Technology
Rogelio A. Rodriguez-Gonzalez: Georgia Institute of Technology
Shengyun Peng: Georgia Institute of Technology
Kevin W. Becker: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Daniel R. Mende: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
E. Virginia Armbrust: University of Washington
David A. Caron: University of Southern California
Debbie Lindell: Technion – Israel Institute of Technology
Angelicque E. White: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
François Ribalet: University of Washington
Joshua S. Weitz: Georgia Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Photosynthesis fuels primary production at the base of marine food webs. Yet, in many surface ocean ecosystems, diel-driven primary production is tightly coupled to daily loss. This tight coupling raises the question: which top-down drivers predominate in maintaining persistently stable picocyanobacterial populations over longer time scales? Motivated by high-frequency surface water measurements taken in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), we developed multitrophic models to investigate bottom-up and top-down mechanisms underlying the balanced control of Prochlorococcus populations. We find that incorporating photosynthetic growth with viral- and predator-induced mortality is sufficient to recapitulate daily oscillations of Prochlorococcus abundances with baseline community abundances. In doing so, we infer that grazers in this environment function as the predominant top-down factor despite high standing viral particle densities. The model-data fits also reveal the ecological relevance of light-dependent viral traits and non-canonical factors to cellular loss. Finally, we leverage sensitivity analyses to demonstrate how variation in life history traits across distinct oceanic contexts, including variation in viral adsorption and grazer clearance rates, can transform the quantitative and even qualitative importance of top-down controls in shaping Prochlorococcus population dynamics.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46165-3

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