Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Xin Zhao (), Bryan K. Mignone, Marshall A. Wise and Haewon C. McJeon
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Xin Zhao: 5825 University Research Ct
Bryan K. Mignone: ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company
Marshall A. Wise: 5825 University Research Ct
Haewon C. McJeon: 5825 University Research Ct

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO2 removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46575-3

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