Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

Giacomo Falchetta (), Enrica Cian, Ian Sue Wing and Deborah Carr
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Giacomo Falchetta: CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Enrica Cian: CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Ian Sue Wing: Boston University
Deborah Carr: Boston University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47197-5

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