Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity

Simon Merkt, Solomon Ali, Esayas Kebede Gudina, Wondimagegn Adissu, Addisu Gize, Maximilian Muenchhoff, Alexander Graf, Stefan Krebs, Kira Elsbernd, Rebecca Kisch, Sisay Sirgu Betizazu, Bereket Fantahun, Delayehu Bekele, Raquel Rubio-Acero, Mulatu Gashaw, Eyob Girma, Daniel Yilma, Ahmed Zeynudin, Ivana Paunovic, Michael Hoelscher, Helmut Blum, Jan Hasenauer (), Arne Kroidl () and Andreas Wieser ()
Additional contact information
Simon Merkt: University of Bonn
Solomon Ali: Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College
Esayas Kebede Gudina: Jimma University Institute of Health
Wondimagegn Adissu: Jimma University Institute of Health
Addisu Gize: Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College
Maximilian Muenchhoff: LMU Munich
Alexander Graf: Gene Center, LMU Munich
Stefan Krebs: Gene Center, LMU Munich
Kira Elsbernd: LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich
Rebecca Kisch: LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich
Sisay Sirgu Betizazu: Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College
Bereket Fantahun: Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College
Delayehu Bekele: Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College
Raquel Rubio-Acero: LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich
Mulatu Gashaw: Jimma University Institute of Health
Eyob Girma: Jimma University Institute of Health
Daniel Yilma: Jimma University Institute of Health
Ahmed Zeynudin: Jimma University Institute of Health
Ivana Paunovic: LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich
Michael Hoelscher: partner site Munich
Helmut Blum: Gene Center, LMU Munich
Jan Hasenauer: University of Bonn
Arne Kroidl: partner site Munich
Andreas Wieser: partner site Munich

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47556-2

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