Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene

Caitlyn R. Witkowski (), Anna S. Heydt, Paul J. Valdes, Marcel T. J. Meer, Stefan Schouten and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Additional contact information
Caitlyn R. Witkowski: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Anna S. Heydt: Department of Physics, Utrecht University
Paul J. Valdes: University of Bristol
Marcel T. J. Meer: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Stefan Schouten: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47676-9

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47676-9

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().