Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market

Francesco Pinotti (), Lisa Kohnle, José Lourenço, Sunetra Gupta, Md. Ahasanul Hoque, Rashed Mahmud, Paritosh Biswas, Dirk Pfeiffer and Guillaume Fournié
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Francesco Pinotti: University of Oxford
Lisa Kohnle: City University of Hong Kong
José Lourenço: Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Sunetra Gupta: University of Oxford
Md. Ahasanul Hoque: Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University
Rashed Mahmud: Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University
Paritosh Biswas: Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University
Dirk Pfeiffer: City University of Hong Kong
Guillaume Fournié: Royal Veterinary College

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major concern for the poultry sector and human health in countries where this subtype is endemic. By fitting a model simulating H9N2 AIV transmission to data from a field experiment, we characterise the epidemiology of the virus in a live bird market in Bangladesh. Many supplied birds arrive already exposed to H9N2 AIVs, resulting in many broiler chickens entering the market as infected, and many indigenous backyard chickens entering with pre-existing immunity. Most susceptible chickens become infected within one day spent at the market, owing to high levels of viral transmission within market and short latent periods, as brief as 5.3 hours. Although H9N2 AIV transmission can be substantially reduced under moderate levels of cleaning and disinfection, effective risk mitigation also requires a range of additional interventions targeting markets and other nodes along the poultry production and distribution network.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47703-9

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