Ambient carbon dioxide concentration correlates with SARS-CoV-2 aerostability and infection risk

Allen Haddrell (), Henry Oswin, Mara Otero-Fernandez, Joshua F. Robinson, Tristan Cogan, Robert Alexander, Jamie F. S. Mann, Darryl Hill, Adam Finn, Andrew D. Davidson () and Jonathan P. Reid ()
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Allen Haddrell: Cantock’s Close, University of Bristol
Henry Oswin: Cantock’s Close, University of Bristol
Mara Otero-Fernandez: Cantock’s Close, University of Bristol
Joshua F. Robinson: Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz
Tristan Cogan: University of Bristol, Langford House, Langford
Robert Alexander: University of Bristol
Jamie F. S. Mann: University of Bristol, Langford House, Langford
Darryl Hill: University of Bristol
Adam Finn: University of Bristol
Andrew D. Davidson: University of Bristol
Jonathan P. Reid: Cantock’s Close, University of Bristol

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract An improved understanding of the underlying physicochemical properties of respiratory aerosol that influence viral infectivity may open new avenues to mitigate the transmission of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Previous studies have shown that an increase in the pH of respiratory aerosols following generation due to changes in the gas-particle partitioning of pH buffering bicarbonate ions and carbon dioxide is a significant factor in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. We show here that a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 aerostability results from a moderate increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (e.g. 800 ppm), an effect that is more marked than that observed for changes in relative humidity. We model the likelihood of COVID-19 transmission on the ambient concentration of CO2, concluding that even this moderate increase in CO2 concentration results in a significant increase in overall risk. These observations confirm the critical importance of ventilation and maintaining low CO2 concentrations in indoor environments for mitigating disease transmission. Moreover, the correlation of increased CO2 concentration with viral aerostability need to be better understood when considering the consequences of increases in ambient CO2 levels in our atmosphere.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47777-5

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