Projected loss of brown macroalgae and seagrasses with global environmental change

Federica Manca (), Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Mar Cabeza, Camilla Gustafsson, Alf M. Norkko, Tomas V. Roslin, David N. Thomas, Lydia White and Giovanni Strona ()
Additional contact information
Federica Manca: University of Helsinki
Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi: CoNISMa
Corey J. A. Bradshaw: Flinders University
Mar Cabeza: University of Helsinki
Camilla Gustafsson: J.A. Palménin tie 260
Alf M. Norkko: J.A. Palménin tie 260
Tomas V. Roslin: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
David N. Thomas: University of Helsinki
Lydia White: J.A. Palménin tie 260
Giovanni Strona: Joint Research Centre

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Although many studies predict extensive future biodiversity loss and redistribution in the terrestrial realm, future changes in marine biodiversity remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we model global shifts in one of the most important marine functional groups—ecosystem-structuring macrophytes—and predict substantial end-of-century change. By modelling the future distribution of 207 brown macroalgae and seagrass species at high temporal and spatial resolution under different climate-change projections, we estimate that by 2100, local macrophyte diversity will decline by 3–4% on average, with 17 to 22% of localities losing at least 10% of their macrophyte species. The current range of macrophytes will be eroded by 5–6%, and highly suitable macrophyte habitat will be substantially reduced globally (78–96%). Global macrophyte habitat will shift among marine regions, with a high potential for expansion in polar regions.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48273-6

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