Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Qinxue Gu (), Melissa Gervais, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Who M. Kim, Frederic Castruccio, Elizabeth Maroon and Shang-Ping Xie
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Qinxue Gu: The Pennsylvania State University
Melissa Gervais: The Pennsylvania State University
Gokhan Danabasoglu: National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Who M. Kim: National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Frederic Castruccio: National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Elizabeth Maroon: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Shang-Ping Xie: University of California San Diego

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2

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