Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Simone Speizer, Jay Fuhrman, Laura Aldrete Lopez, Mel George, Page Kyle, Seth Monteith and Haewon McJeon ()
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Simone Speizer: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jay Fuhrman: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Laura Aldrete Lopez: ClimateWorks Foundation
Mel George: University of Maryland
Page Kyle: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Seth Monteith: ClimateWorks Foundation
Haewon McJeon: Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48424-9

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