Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue

Vinyas Harish, Felipe J. Colón-González, Filipe R. R. Moreira, Rory Gibb, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Megan Davis, Robert C. Reiner, David M. Pigott, T. Alex Perkins, Daniel J. Weiss, Isaac I. Bogoch, Gonzalo Vazquez-Prokopec, Pablo Manrique Saide, Gerson L. Barbosa, Ester C. Sabino, Kamran Khan, Nuno R. Faria, Simon I. Hay, Fabián Correa-Morales, Francisco Chiaravalloti-Neto and Oliver J. Brady ()
Additional contact information
Vinyas Harish: University of Toronto
Felipe J. Colón-González: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Filipe R. R. Moreira: Imperial College London
Rory Gibb: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Moritz U. G. Kraemer: University of Oxford
Megan Davis: BlueDot
Robert C. Reiner: University of Washington
David M. Pigott: University of Washington
T. Alex Perkins: University of Notre Dame
Daniel J. Weiss: Telethon Kids Institute
Isaac I. Bogoch: University of Toronto
Gonzalo Vazquez-Prokopec: Emory University
Pablo Manrique Saide: Autonomous University of Yucatan
Gerson L. Barbosa: State Secretary of Health of São Paulo
Ester C. Sabino: Universidade de São Paulo
Kamran Khan: University of Toronto
Nuno R. Faria: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Simon I. Hay: University of Washington
Fabián Correa-Morales: Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaria de Salud Mexico
Francisco Chiaravalloti-Neto: University of São Paulo
Oliver J. Brady: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48465-0

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