Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

Amanda C. Perofsky (), Chelsea L. Hansen, Roy Burstein, Shanda Boyle, Robin Prentice, Cooper Marshall, David Reinhart, Ben Capodanno, Melissa Truong, Kristen Schwabe-Fry, Kayla Kuchta, Brian Pfau, Zack Acker, Jover Lee, Thomas R. Sibley, Evan McDermot, Leslie Rodriguez-Salas, Jeremy Stone, Luis Gamboa, Peter D. Han, Amanda Adler, Alpana Waghmare, Michael L. Jackson, Michael Famulare, Jay Shendure, Trevor Bedford, Helen Y. Chu, Janet A. Englund, Lea M. Starita and Cécile Viboud
Additional contact information
Amanda C. Perofsky: University of Washington
Chelsea L. Hansen: University of Washington
Roy Burstein: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Shanda Boyle: University of Washington
Robin Prentice: University of Washington
Cooper Marshall: University of Washington
David Reinhart: University of Washington
Ben Capodanno: University of Washington
Melissa Truong: University of Washington
Kristen Schwabe-Fry: University of Washington
Kayla Kuchta: University of Washington
Brian Pfau: University of Washington
Zack Acker: University of Washington
Jover Lee: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Thomas R. Sibley: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Evan McDermot: University of Washington
Leslie Rodriguez-Salas: University of Washington
Jeremy Stone: University of Washington
Luis Gamboa: University of Washington
Peter D. Han: University of Washington
Amanda Adler: Seattle Children’s Research Institute
Alpana Waghmare: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Michael L. Jackson: EpiAssist LLC
Michael Famulare: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Jay Shendure: University of Washington
Trevor Bedford: University of Washington
Helen Y. Chu: University of Washington
Janet A. Englund: University of Washington
Lea M. Starita: University of Washington
Cécile Viboud: National Institutes of Health

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Abstract Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48528-2 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48528-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48528-2

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().