Urban development pattern’s influence on extreme rainfall occurrences

Long Yang (), Yixin Yang, Ye Shen, Jiachuan Yang, Guang Zheng, James Smith and Dev Niyogi
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Long Yang: Nanjing University
Yixin Yang: Nanjing University
Ye Shen: Nanjing University
Jiachuan Yang: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Guang Zheng: Nanjing University
James Smith: Princeton University
Dev Niyogi: The University of Texas at Austin

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Growing urban population and the distinct strategies to accommodate them lead to diverse urban development patterns worldwide. While local evidence suggests the presence of urban signatures in rainfall anomalies, there is limited understanding of how rainfall responds to divergent urban development patterns worldwide. Here we unveil a divergence in the exposure to extreme rainfall for 1790 inland cities globally, attributable to their respective urban development patterns. Cities that experience compact development tend to witness larger increases in extreme rainfall frequency over downtown than their rural surroundings, while the anomalies in extreme rainfall frequency diminish for cities with dispersed development. Convection-permitting simulations further suggest compact urban footprints lead to more pronounced urban-rural thermal contrasts and aerodynamic disturbances. This is directly responsible for the divergent rainfall responses to urban development patterns. Our analyses offer significant insights pertaining to the priorities and potential of city-level efforts to mitigate the emerging climate-related hazards, particularly for countries experiencing rapid urbanization.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48533-5

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