Positive feedbacks and alternative stable states in forest leaf types

Yibiao Zou (), Constantin M. Zohner, Colin Averill, Haozhi Ma, Julian Merder, Miguel Berdugo, Lalasia Bialic-Murphy, Lidong Mo, Philipp Brun, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de-Miguel, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Peter B. Reich, Ulo Niinements, Jonas Dahlgren, Gerald Kändler, Sophia Ratcliffe, Paloma Ruiz-Benito, Miguel Angel Zavala and Thomas W. Crowther
Additional contact information
Yibiao Zou: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Constantin M. Zohner: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Colin Averill: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Haozhi Ma: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Julian Merder: Carnegie Institution for Science
Miguel Berdugo: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Lalasia Bialic-Murphy: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Lidong Mo: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Philipp Brun: Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Niklaus E. Zimmermann: Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Jingjing Liang: Purdue University
Sergio de-Miguel: University of Lleida
Gert-Jan Nabuurs: Wageningen University and Research
Peter B. Reich: University of Minnesota
Ulo Niinements: Estonian University of Life Sciences
Jonas Dahlgren: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Gerald Kändler: Forstliche Versuchs- und Forschungsanstalt Baden-Württemberg
Sophia Ratcliffe: NBN Trust
Paloma Ruiz-Benito: Universidad de Alcalá
Miguel Angel Zavala: Universidad de Alcalá
Thomas W. Crowther: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48676-5

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