Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022

Dongsheng Zheng, Dan Tong (), Steven J. Davis, Yue Qin, Yang Liu, Ruochong Xu, Jin Yang, Xizhe Yan, Guannan Geng, Huizheng Che and Qiang Zhang
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Dongsheng Zheng: Tsinghua University
Dan Tong: Tsinghua University
Steven J. Davis: University of California, Irvine
Yue Qin: Peking University
Yang Liu: Tsinghua University
Ruochong Xu: Tsinghua University
Jin Yang: Tsinghua University
Xizhe Yan: Tsinghua University
Guannan Geng: Tsinghua University
Huizheng Che: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Qiang Zhang: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Economic productivity depends on reliable access to electricity, but the extreme shortage events of variable wind-solar systems may be strongly affected by climate change. Here, hourly reanalysis climatological data are leveraged to examine historical trends in defined extreme shortage events worldwide. We find uptrends in extreme shortage events regardless of their frequency, duration, and intensity since 1980. For instance, duration of extreme low-reliability events worldwide has increased by 4.1 hours (0.392 hours per year on average) between 1980–2000 and 2001–2022. However, such ascending trends are unevenly distributed worldwide, with a greater variability in low- and middle-latitude developing countries. This uptrend in extreme shortage events is driven by extremely low wind speed and solar radiation, particularly compound wind and solar drought, which however are strongly disproportionated. Only average 12.5% change in compound extremely low wind speed and solar radiation events may give rise to over 30% variability in extreme shortage events, despite a mere average 1.0% change in average wind speed and solar radiation. Our findings underline that wind-solar systems will probably suffer from weakened power security if such uptrends persist in a warmer future.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48966-y

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