Potential pandemic risk of circulating swine H1N2 influenza viruses

Valerie Le Sage, Nicole C. Rockey, Andrea J. French, Ryan McBride, Kevin R. McCarthy, Lora H. Rigatti, Meredith J. Shephard, Jennifer E. Jones, Sydney G. Walter, Joshua D. Doyle, Lingqing Xu, Dominique J. Barbeau, Shengyang Wang, Sheila A. Frizzell, Michael M. Myerburg, James C. Paulson, Anita K. McElroy, Tavis K. Anderson, Amy L. Vincent Baker and Seema S. Lakdawala ()
Additional contact information
Valerie Le Sage: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Nicole C. Rockey: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Andrea J. French: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Ryan McBride: The Scripps Research Institute
Kevin R. McCarthy: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Lora H. Rigatti: University of Pittsburgh
Meredith J. Shephard: Emory University School of Medicine
Jennifer E. Jones: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Sydney G. Walter: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Joshua D. Doyle: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Lingqing Xu: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Dominique J. Barbeau: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Shengyang Wang: The Scripps Research Institute
Sheila A. Frizzell: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Michael M. Myerburg: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
James C. Paulson: The Scripps Research Institute
Anita K. McElroy: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
Tavis K. Anderson: National Animal Disease Center
Amy L. Vincent Baker: National Animal Disease Center
Seema S. Lakdawala: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Influenza A viruses in swine have considerable genetic diversity and continue to pose a pandemic threat to humans due to a potential lack of population level immunity. Here we describe a pipeline to characterize and triage influenza viruses for their pandemic risk and examine the pandemic potential of two widespread swine origin viruses. Our analysis reveals that a panel of human sera collected from healthy adults in 2020 has no cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies against a α-H1 clade strain (α-swH1N2) but do against a γ-H1 clade strain. The α-swH1N2 virus replicates efficiently in human airway cultures and exhibits phenotypic signatures similar to the human H1N1 pandemic strain from 2009 (H1N1pdm09). Furthermore, α-swH1N2 is capable of efficient airborne transmission to both naïve ferrets and ferrets with prior seasonal influenza immunity. Ferrets with H1N1pdm09 pre-existing immunity show reduced α-swH1N2 viral shedding and less severe disease signs. Despite this, H1N1pdm09-immune ferrets that became infected via the air can still onward transmit α-swH1N2 with an efficiency of 50%. These results indicate that this α-swH1N2 strain has a higher pandemic potential, but a moderate level of impact since there is reduced replication fitness and pathology in animals with prior immunity.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49117-z

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