Global biogeography of microbes driving ocean ecological status under climate change

Zhenyan Zhang, Qi Zhang, Bingfeng Chen, Yitian Yu, Tingzhang Wang, Nuohan Xu, Xiaoji Fan, Josep Penuelas, Zhengwei Fu, Ye Deng, Yong-Guan Zhu and Haifeng Qian ()
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Zhenyan Zhang: Zhejiang University of Technology
Qi Zhang: Zhejiang University of Technology
Bingfeng Chen: Zhejiang University of Technology
Yitian Yu: Zhejiang University of Technology
Tingzhang Wang: Key Laboratory of Microbial Technology and Bioinformatics of Zhejiang Province
Nuohan Xu: Zhejiang University of Technology
Xiaoji Fan: Key Laboratory of Microbial Technology and Bioinformatics of Zhejiang Province
Josep Penuelas: Bellaterra
Zhengwei Fu: Zhejiang University of Technology
Ye Deng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yong-Guan Zhu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Haifeng Qian: Zhejiang University of Technology

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Microbial communities play a crucial role in ocean ecology and global biogeochemical processes. However, understanding the intricate interactions among diversity, taxonomical composition, functional traits, and how these factors respond to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we propose seven distinct ecological statuses by systematically considering the diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential of the ocean microbiome to delineate their biogeography. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter the ecological status of the surface ocean by influencing environmental conditions, particularly nutrient and oxygen contents. Our predictive model, which utilizes machine learning, indicates that the ecological status of approximately 32.44% of the surface ocean may undergo changes from the present to the end of this century, assuming no policy interventions. These changes mainly include poleward shifts in the main taxa, increases in photosynthetic carbon fixation and decreases in nutrient metabolism. However, this proportion can decrease significantly with effective control of greenhouse gas emissions. Our study underscores the urgent necessity for implementing policies to mitigate climate change, particularly from an ecological perspective.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49124-0

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