Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States

Sean W. D. Turner (), Ganesh R. Ghimire, Carly Hansen, Debjani Singh and Shih-Chieh Kao
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Sean W. D. Turner: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Ganesh R. Ghimire: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Carly Hansen: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Debjani Singh: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Shih-Chieh Kao: Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract The United States hydropower fleet has faced increasing environmental and regulatory pressures over the last half century, potentially constraining total generation. Here we show that annual capacity factor has declined at four fifths of United States hydropower plants since 1980, with two thirds of decreasing trends significant at p 5 megawatt), representing 87% of total conventional hydropower capacity in the United States. On aggregate, changes in capacity factor imply a fleetwide, cumulative generation decrease of 23% since 1980 before factoring in capacity upgrades—akin to retiring a Hoover Dam once every two to three years. Changes in water availability explain energy decline in only 21% of plants, highlighting the importance of non-climatic drivers of generation, including deterioration of plant equipment as well as changes to dam operations in support of nonpower objectives.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49553-x

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