Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure

Renlu Qiao, Shuo Gao, Xiaochang Liu, Li Xia, Guobin Zhang, Xi Meng, Zhiyu Liu (), Mo Wang (), Shiqi Zhou () and Zhiqiang Wu ()
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Renlu Qiao: Tongji University
Shuo Gao: University of Oxford
Xiaochang Liu: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Li Xia: University of Science and Technology of China
Guobin Zhang: Tongji University
Xi Meng: Beijing University of Technology
Zhiyu Liu: Tongji University
Mo Wang: Guangzhou University
Shiqi Zhou: Tongji University
Zhiqiang Wu: Tongji University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Amid the escalating global climatic challenges, hydrological risks significantly influence human settlement patterns, underscoring the imperative for an in-depth comprehension of hydrological change’s ramifications on human migration. However, predominant research has been circumscribed to the national level. The study delves into the nonlinear effects of hydrological risks on migration dynamics in 46,776 global subnational units. Meanwhile, leveraging remote sensing, we procured globally consistent metrics of hydrological intrusion exposure, offering a holistic risk assessment encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability dimensions, thus complementing previous work. Here, we show that exposure is the primary migration driver, surpassing socioeconomic factors. Surrounding disparities further intensified exposure’s impact. Vulnerable groups, especially the economically disadvantaged and elderly, tend to remain in high-risk areas, with the former predominantly migrating within proximate vicinities. The nonlinear analysis delineates an S-shaped trajectory for hydrological exposure, transitioning from resistance to migration and culminating in entrapment, revealing dependence on settlement resilience and adaptability.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49609-y

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