Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors

Ke Li, Lei Gao, Zhaoxia Guo, Yucheng Dong (), Enayat A. Moallemi, Gang Kou, Meiqian Chen, Wenhao Lin, Qi Liu, Michael Obersteiner, Matteo Pedercini and Brett A. Bryan
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Ke Li: Sichuan University
Lei Gao: Waite Campus
Zhaoxia Guo: Sichuan University
Yucheng Dong: Sichuan University
Enayat A. Moallemi: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Gang Kou: Xiangjiang Laboratory
Meiqian Chen: Sichuan University
Wenhao Lin: Sichuan University
Qi Liu: Sichuan University
Michael Obersteiner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Matteo Pedercini: Millennium Institute
Brett A. Bryan: Deakin University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract China’s long-term sustainability faces socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties. We identify five key systemic risk drivers, called disruptors, which could push China into a polycrisis: pandemic disease, ageing and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Using an integrated simulation model, we quantify the effects of these disruptors on the country’s long-term sustainability framed by 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we show that ageing and shrinking population, and climate change would be the two most influential disruptors on China’s long-term sustainability. The compound effects of all disruptors could result in up to 2.1 and 7.0 points decline in the China’s SDG score by 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline with no disruptors and no additional sustainability policies. However, an integrated policy portfolio involving investment in education, healthcare, energy transition, water-use efficiency, ecological conservation and restoration could promote resilience against the compound effects and significantly improve China’s long-term sustainability.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49725-9

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