Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Tessa Möller (), Annika Ernest Högner, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Samuel Bien, Niklas H. Kitzmann, Robin D. Lamboll, Joeri Rogelj, Jonathan F. Donges, Johan Rockström and Nico Wunderling ()
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Tessa Möller: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Annika Ernest Högner: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Samuel Bien: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Niklas H. Kitzmann: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Robin D. Lamboll: Imperial College London
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Jonathan F. Donges: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Johan Rockström: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Nico Wunderling: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0

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