Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Chao Jin (), Haifeng Liu (), Mingfa Yao (), Sandylove Afrane, Humphrey Adun, Jay Fuhrman, David T. Ho and Haewon McJeon
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Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah: Tianjin University
Chao Jin: Tianjin University
Haifeng Liu: Tianjin University
Mingfa Yao: Tianjin University
Sandylove Afrane: Tianjin University
Humphrey Adun: Near East University
Jay Fuhrman: University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
David T. Ho: University of Hawaii at Mānoa
Haewon McJeon: KAIST Graduate School of Green Growth & Sustainability

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO2yr−1 (GtCO2yr−1) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO2yr−1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50594-5

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