Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Sarabeth M. Mathis (), Alexander E. Webber, Tomás M. León, Erin L. Murray, Monica Sun, Lauren A. White, Logan C. Brooks, Alden Green, Addison J. Hu, Roni Rosenfeld, Dmitry Shemetov, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Daniel J. McDonald, Sasikiran Kandula, Sen Pei, Rami Yaari, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Pulak Agarwal, Srikar Balusu, Gautham Gururajan, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, B. Aditya Prakash, Rishi Raman, Zhiyuan Zhao, Alexander Rodríguez, Akilan Meiyappan, Shalina Omar, Prasith Baccam, Heidi L. Gurung, Brad T. Suchoski, Steve A. Stage, Marco Ajelli, Allisandra G. Kummer, Maria Litvinova, Paulo C. Ventura, Spencer Wadsworth, Jarad Niemi, Erica Carcelen, Alison L. Hill, Sara L. Loo, Clifton D. McKee, Koji Sato, Claire Smith, Shaun Truelove, Sung-mok Jung, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Justin Lessler, Thomas McAndrew, Wenxuan Ye, Nikos Bosse, William S. Hlavacek, Yen Ting Lin, Abhishek Mallela, Graham C. Gibson, Ye Chen, Shelby M. Lamm, Jaechoul Lee, Richard G. Posner, Amanda C. Perofsky, Cécile Viboud, Leonardo Clemente, Fred Lu, Austin G. Meyer, Mauricio Santillana, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Xinyue Xiong, Michal Ben-Nun, Pete Riley, James Turtle, Chis Hulme-Lowe, Shakeel Jessa, V. P. Nagraj, Stephen D. Turner, Desiree Williams, Avranil Basu, John M. Drake, Spencer J. Fox, Ehsan Suez, Monica G. Cojocaru, Edward W. Thommes, Estee Y. Cramer, Aaron Gerding, Ariane Stark, Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich, Li Shandross, Nutcha Wattanachit, Yijin Wang, Martha W. Zorn, Majd Al Aawar, Ajitesh Srivastava, Lauren A. Meyers, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Gursharn Kaur, Bryan L. Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Patrick Butler, Andrew Farabow, Naren Ramakrishnan, Nikhil Muralidhar, Carrie Reed, Matthew Biggerstaff and Rebecca K. Borchering ()
Additional contact information
Sarabeth M. Mathis: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Alexander E. Webber: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Tomás M. León: California Department of Public Health
Erin L. Murray: California Department of Public Health
Monica Sun: California Department of Public Health
Lauren A. White: California Department of Public Health
Logan C. Brooks: Carnegie Mellon University
Alden Green: Carnegie Mellon University
Addison J. Hu: Carnegie Mellon University
Roni Rosenfeld: Carnegie Mellon University
Dmitry Shemetov: Carnegie Mellon University
Ryan J. Tibshirani: Carnegie Mellon University
Daniel J. McDonald: University of British Columbia
Sasikiran Kandula: Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Sen Pei: Columbia University
Rami Yaari: Columbia University
Teresa K. Yamana: Columbia University
Jeffrey Shaman: Columbia University
Pulak Agarwal: Georgia Institute of Technology
Srikar Balusu: Georgia Institute of Technology
Gautham Gururajan: Georgia Institute of Technology
Harshavardhan Kamarthi: Georgia Institute of Technology
B. Aditya Prakash: Georgia Institute of Technology
Rishi Raman: Georgia Institute of Technology
Zhiyuan Zhao: Georgia Institute of Technology
Alexander Rodríguez: University of Michigan
Akilan Meiyappan: Guidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services
Shalina Omar: Guidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services
Prasith Baccam: IEM
Heidi L. Gurung: IEM
Brad T. Suchoski: IEM
Steve A. Stage: IEM
Marco Ajelli: Indiana University School of Public Health
Allisandra G. Kummer: Indiana University School of Public Health
Maria Litvinova: Indiana University School of Public Health
Paulo C. Ventura: Indiana University School of Public Health
Spencer Wadsworth: Iowa State University
Jarad Niemi: Iowa State University
Erica Carcelen: Johns Hopkins University
Alison L. Hill: Johns Hopkins University
Sara L. Loo: Johns Hopkins University
Clifton D. McKee: Johns Hopkins University
Koji Sato: Johns Hopkins University
Claire Smith: Johns Hopkins University
Shaun Truelove: Johns Hopkins University
Sung-mok Jung: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Joseph C. Lemaitre: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Justin Lessler: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Thomas McAndrew: Lehigh University
Wenxuan Ye: Lehigh University
Nikos Bosse: London School of Health and Tropical Medicine
William S. Hlavacek: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Yen Ting Lin: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Abhishek Mallela: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Graham C. Gibson: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Ye Chen: Northern Arizona University
Shelby M. Lamm: Northern Arizona University
Jaechoul Lee: Northern Arizona University
Richard G. Posner: Northern Arizona University
Amanda C. Perofsky: National Institutes of Health
Cécile Viboud: National Institutes of Health
Leonardo Clemente: Northeastern University
Fred Lu: Northeastern University
Austin G. Meyer: Northeastern University
Mauricio Santillana: Northeastern University
Matteo Chinazzi: Northeastern University
Jessica T. Davis: Northeastern University
Kunpeng Mu: Northeastern University
Ana Pastore y Piontti: Northeastern University
Alessandro Vespignani: Northeastern University
Xinyue Xiong: Northeastern University
Michal Ben-Nun: Predictive Science Inc
Pete Riley: Predictive Science Inc
James Turtle: Predictive Science Inc
Chis Hulme-Lowe: LLC
Shakeel Jessa: LLC
V. P. Nagraj: LLC
Stephen D. Turner: LLC
Desiree Williams: LLC
Avranil Basu: University of Georgia
John M. Drake: University of Georgia
Spencer J. Fox: University of Georgia
Ehsan Suez: University of Georgia
Monica G. Cojocaru: University of Guelph
Edward W. Thommes: University of Guelph
Estee Y. Cramer: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Aaron Gerding: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Ariane Stark: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Evan L. Ray: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Nicholas G. Reich: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Li Shandross: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Nutcha Wattanachit: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Yijin Wang: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Martha W. Zorn: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Majd Al Aawar: University of Southern California
Ajitesh Srivastava: University of Southern California
Lauren A. Meyers: University of Texas Austin
Aniruddha Adiga: University of Virginia
Benjamin Hurt: University of Virginia
Gursharn Kaur: University of Virginia
Bryan L. Lewis: University of Virginia
Madhav Marathe: University of Virginia
Srinivasan Venkatramanan: University of Virginia
Patrick Butler: Virginia Tech
Andrew Farabow: Virginia Tech
Naren Ramakrishnan: Virginia Tech
Nikhil Muralidhar: Stevens Institute of Technology
Carrie Reed: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Matthew Biggerstaff: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Rebecca K. Borchering: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50601-9

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